VCs warn 2026 is when AI stops 'boosting productivity' and starts replacing roles—budgets shift from headcount to agents, and layoffs may get an AI label

# VCs warn 2026 is when AI stops 'boosting productivity' and starts replacing roles 2026 is shaping up as a turning point for AI at work. A group of enterprise-focused VCs told TechCrunch they expect AI to move beyond simple productivity helpers. They see systems that directly replace some tasks and roles. Their comments arrive alongside evidence that disruption has already begun. An MIT study, as cited in reporting, estimates that 11.7% of jobs could already be automated with current AI. Surveys also suggest employers are trimming entry-level roles and increasingly citing AI when they explain layoffs. The message is that AI-linked labour change has moved from theory into practice. The scale may still be uncertain, but the direction is not. For Morocco, this timing matters. The country is modernising its economy, nurturing startups, and expanding digital infrastructure. Those efforts will meet a wave of AI agents designed to do work end to end. The question is whether Moroccan companies, workers, and policymakers are ready to shape that shift rather than just absorb it. ## Key takeaways - VCs expect 2026 enterprise budgets to shift from hiring more people to deploying AI agents that do meaningful work. - Some investors see AI as a clear driver of labour substitution, while others warn the exact pattern of disruption remains uncertain. - AI may become both a real cause of layoffs and a convenient story leaders use to justify broader cost cutting. - For Morocco, agentic AI is a risk to entry-level and routine roles, but also an opportunity to climb the value chain. - Moroccan startups, firms, and policymakers should plan now for workflows where humans supervise AI rather than perform every task themselves. ## Why investors say 2026 is different The VCs TechCrunch spoke with argue that enterprise AI is entering a new phase. Many organisations have already tested pilots, assistants, and basic copilots. The next wave is larger deployments embedded in workflows and core systems. That is when chief financial officers start asking a blunt question. That is when chief financial officers start asking a blunt question. If software can do more of the work, how many people do we really need? TechCrunch notes that its survey did not explicitly ask investors about labour impacts. Even so, they raised workforce disruption on their own. That suggests the link between AI and headcount is now a default assumption in planning. For 2026 budgets, investors expect AI and staffing to be discussed in the same breath. Hustle Fund's Eric Bahn captures the uncertainty. He sees the direction of travel as obvious: automation will climb from repetitive tasks into multi-step work requiring logic and coordination. What remains unclear is the balance between displacement and augmentation. 2026 may be the year markets discover whether AI mostly cuts jobs, raises productivity, or does some of both. Exceptional Capital's Marell Evans makes the budget logic explicit. Companies pay for AI and people from the same operating pool. If the AI line item grows, the headcount line item may shrink. That is especially true in large enterprises where labour is the biggest controllable cost. Sapphire's Rajeev Dham and Battery Ventures' Jason Mendel describe 2026 as the year of agents. Dham also expects budget shifts away from labour and toward automation. Mendel argues that AI will cross a line here. It will move from tools that help workers to software that completes full workflows in some functions. He calls this the moment when the human-labour displacement value proposition becomes clearer. AI is no longer just a productivity booster in slide decks. It becomes a credible alternative to certain categories of human work. That shifts how executives frame every new headcount request. Black Operator Ventures' Antonia Dean adds another layer. She warns that some firms may start branding almost any workforce reduction as AI-driven. In those cases, 'we are investing in AI' becomes a narrative cover for cost cuts, missed targets, or old strategic mistakes. 2026 could therefore bring both real automation-led reductions and cuts that only borrow AI language. Many AI vendors say their tools free humans from busy work. They promise to automate routine tasks so staff can focus on deep work or higher-value responsibilities. The investors speaking to TechCrunch are less sure that this story will reassure workers. When agents can perform end-to-end processes, some roles may simply no longer be needed, regardless of the marketing. ## What this shift means for operating models If the VCs are right, 2026 planning will not stop at 'which AI tools should we buy'. Companies will revisit how work gets done across departments. Processes will be redesigned around a mix of software agents and people. Some roles will become AI supervision, exception handling, and outcome ownership rather than manual execution. Headcount changes may come through quiet decisions rather than dramatic announcements. Managers may decide not to backfill certain jobs after departures. New hires could be concentrated in fewer, more senior positions supported by AI. Entry-level paths might narrow as agents take over the foundational work those roles used to perform. For workers, that creates both pressure and opportunity. People who learn to steer, audit, and improve AI systems can become more valuable. Those who remain tied only to repeatable tasks risk seeing their roles shrink. The transition will not be uniform, but the direction is clear. ## Morocco's AI context: from pilots to agents Morocco is entering this global shift from a distinctive position. The country has an active outsourcing sector, growing startups, and major investments in infrastructure. Government bodies, including the Moroccan Agency for Digital Development, push digital transformation across administration and business. Universities and engineering schools are expanding data and AI programmes to match demand. On the ground, many Moroccan organisations remain in early stages of AI adoption. Large banks, telecoms, and industrial groups experiment with chatbots, analytics, and recommendation systems. Some use AI to detect fraud, optimise logistics, or support customer service. Smaller firms often rely on basic cloud tools and remain cautious about full automation. There are also pockets of advanced work. Mohammed VI Polytechnic University in Benguerir hosts AI research tied to mining, agriculture, and climate. Moroccan startup ATLAN Space, for example, uses AI-powered drones to monitor oceans and environmental risks. These projects show that local teams can build world-class AI when they have the right data, talent, and support. As global enterprises move toward agents, Moroccan actors face a choice. They can treat AI as a distant trend and wait for imported solutions. Or they can build and adapt agents that understand local languages, regulations, and business realities. The second path is harder but gives Morocco more control over how value and risk are shared. ## Where agents could reshape work in Morocco Several Moroccan sectors are exposed to the agent wave. Outsourced customer service and business process operations are at the top of the list. Many of these roles involve structured workflows, scripts, and documentation. They are exactly the kind of processes that agentic systems can increasingly handle. Tourism and hospitality are also candidates. AI agents can perform multilingual customer support, travel planning, and dynamic pricing for hotels and experiences. If global chains standardise these tools, local teams may see some administrative tasks vanish. The value of human staff will sit more in authenticity, service quality, and complex problem solving. In finance, agents can help with document review, risk checks, and compliance workflows. They can prepare files that analysts and managers validate. If designed well, this can raise throughput and reduce errors. If designed poorly, it can hollow out junior roles and concentrate decision power in smaller senior teams. Public administration will feel similar pressures. Digital portals and chatbots already handle simple questions. Agents could go further, assembling documents, tracking case progress, and pre-filling forms from existing records. That could improve citizen experience, but it also raises questions about what happens to clerical roles. ## Opportunities for Moroccan startups and builders For Moroccan startups, agents are not just a threat. They are a new product category. The key is to move beyond generic chatbots and focus on specific workflows and outcomes. Promising directions include: - Agents that handle French, Arabic, and Moroccan dialects with cultural nuance for customer service and sales. - Workflow agents for export-heavy sectors such as automotive components, aerospace, phosphates, and textiles. - Tools that help small businesses automate invoicing, inventory, and basic compliance without needing large IT teams. - Agents for agriculture that assist with irrigation planning, pest detection, and market information using local data. Startups that deeply understand Moroccan regulations and business habits have an edge. They can encode these details into agents, reducing integration friction. They can also design for human oversight from the start, which will matter as clients worry about risk and accountability. Partnerships with universities and large enterprises can provide the domain expertise and data needed. ## How Moroccan companies can prepare for 2026 Moroccan executives do not need to predict every outcome. They do need a structured approach to AI and agents. A simple starting point is to map work into buckets: repetitive tasks, rule-based decisions, complex judgement, and human relationship work. From there, companies can: - Pilot agents on narrow, well-documented workflows with clear success metrics. - Keep humans in the loop for decisions with legal, financial, or reputational impact. - Use gains from automation to retrain staff into higher-value roles where possible. - Align AI spending with measurable outcomes, not vague innovation goals. Transparent communication will be critical. Employees should hear early if certain tasks are likely to be automated. They should also see concrete paths for upskilling or internal mobility. That will not remove the pain of change, but it can build trust. ## What policymakers and institutions should watch For policymakers in Morocco, the 2026 horizon is a planning deadline. Education, labour, and digital strategies need to anticipate more automation. That means combining skills programmes, infrastructure, and social protections. Priority actions could include: - Expanding AI and data literacy in schools, universities, and vocational training. - Supporting research and open datasets that underpin local AI solutions while respecting privacy. - Updating labour frameworks to handle AI-linked restructuring and to encourage honest communication about layoff reasons. - Encouraging public sector pilots where agents improve service quality without abrupt job losses, for example through gradual redeployment. Social dialogue will matter as much as technology design. If organisations use AI as a scapegoat for every cut, public resistance will harden. Clear rules and shared understanding can help Morocco harness AI for growth while limiting avoidable harm. ## Looking ahead The investors speaking to TechCrunch may not agree on every detail, but they converge on one point. By 2026, AI will be less about boosting productivity on the margins and more about redefining how work is organised. For Morocco, this could be a chance to move up the value chain or a shock to vulnerable workers. Outcomes will depend on choices made in the next two years. Those who prepare for agents, invest in skills, and communicate honestly will be better positioned. When budgets shift from headcount to software, they will have more options.